IWM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$293.14

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$308.11

Bear 68%

$273.77

Bull 68%

$343.84

68% Range Width

22.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $277.32 $282.86 $288.20 $293.73 $299.30 $304.75 $310.47
2026-08-16 $269.66 $278.16 $286.39 $294.95 $303.60 $312.08 $321.02
2026-08-23 $263.38 $274.00 $284.32 $295.09 $306.00 $316.72 $328.05
2026-08-30 $255.92 $268.24 $280.24 $292.80 $305.54 $318.09 $331.38
2026-09-06 $251.69 $265.51 $279.00 $293.13 $307.51 $321.70 $336.75
2026-09-13 $248.95 $264.13 $278.97 $294.55 $310.42 $326.10 $342.76
2026-09-20 $248.15 $264.60 $280.71 $297.64 $314.92 $332.02 $350.21
2026-09-27 $246.25 $263.86 $281.12 $299.30 $317.87 $336.27 $355.86
2026-10-04 $244.04 $262.71 $281.04 $300.37 $320.15 $339.77 $360.68
2026-10-11 $241.72 $261.38 $280.71 $301.13 $322.04 $342.81 $364.97
2026-10-18 $238.42 $258.99 $279.24 $300.66 $322.62 $344.46 $367.78
2026-10-25 $234.96 $256.37 $277.49 $299.84 $322.80 $345.65 $370.08
2026-11-01 $232.52 $254.85 $276.90 $300.28 $324.31 $348.26 $373.88
2026-11-08 $230.89 $254.13 $277.11 $301.50 $326.61 $351.65 $378.47
2026-11-15 $228.39 $252.46 $276.31 $301.64 $327.75 $353.82 $381.76
2026-11-22 $223.77 $248.56 $273.16 $299.33 $326.33 $353.32 $382.28
2026-11-29 $221.66 $247.22 $272.62 $299.67 $327.61 $355.57 $385.59
2026-12-06 $220.59 $246.94 $273.15 $301.10 $329.98 $358.91 $389.99
2026-12-13 $221.12 $248.29 $275.34 $304.22 $334.08 $364.01 $396.19
2026-12-20 $220.40 $248.33 $276.15 $305.88 $336.66 $367.52 $400.73
2026-12-27 $219.22 $247.86 $276.42 $306.97 $338.62 $370.37 $404.57
2027-01-03 $217.82 $247.12 $276.40 $307.73 $340.22 $372.84 $407.99
2027-01-10 $215.37 $245.29 $275.20 $307.25 $340.52 $373.95 $410.00
2027-01-17 $212.68 $243.17 $273.69 $306.44 $340.45 $374.66 $411.57
2027-01-24 $210.97 $242.12 $273.35 $306.87 $341.73 $376.82 $414.70
2027-01-31 $209.98 $241.82 $273.77 $308.11 $343.84 $379.83 $418.71

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.