IWM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$285.42

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$299.48

Bear 68%

$263.02

Bull 68%

$338.40

68% Range Width

25.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $268.63 $274.42 $280.02 $285.86 $291.75 $297.54 $303.64
2026-10-04 $260.43 $269.31 $277.96 $287.02 $296.23 $305.31 $314.95
2026-10-11 $254.42 $265.51 $276.36 $287.78 $299.43 $310.98 $323.27
2026-10-18 $248.45 $261.31 $273.94 $287.27 $300.93 $314.51 $329.02
2026-10-25 $242.85 $257.20 $271.34 $286.33 $301.72 $317.07 $333.52
2026-11-01 $239.49 $255.20 $270.74 $287.25 $304.26 $321.26 $339.52
2026-11-08 $236.90 $253.87 $270.69 $288.61 $307.13 $325.67 $345.63
2026-11-15 $233.39 $251.47 $269.45 $288.63 $308.51 $328.46 $349.97
2026-11-22 $227.94 $246.96 $265.91 $286.19 $307.25 $328.43 $351.33
2026-11-29 $224.97 $244.93 $264.89 $286.29 $308.55 $330.99 $355.28
2026-12-06 $223.15 $244.06 $265.00 $287.50 $310.95 $334.64 $360.32
2026-12-13 $222.88 $244.75 $266.70 $290.33 $315.00 $339.95 $367.05
2026-12-20 $221.45 $244.28 $267.24 $292.01 $317.91 $344.16 $372.71
2026-12-27 $219.70 $243.43 $267.36 $293.22 $320.31 $347.81 $377.77
2027-01-03 $217.68 $242.26 $267.09 $293.98 $322.21 $350.91 $382.21
2027-01-10 $214.68 $240.01 $265.65 $293.47 $322.74 $352.53 $385.08
2027-01-17 $211.40 $237.42 $263.82 $292.52 $322.75 $353.58 $387.32
2027-01-24 $209.82 $236.59 $263.81 $293.45 $324.72 $356.66 $391.65
2027-01-31 $208.69 $236.22 $264.25 $294.83 $327.14 $360.19 $396.44
2027-02-07 $206.50 $234.68 $263.43 $294.85 $328.11 $362.16 $399.56
2027-02-14 $202.31 $230.98 $260.29 $292.38 $326.41 $361.31 $399.70
2027-02-21 $200.32 $229.60 $259.59 $292.48 $327.40 $363.26 $402.76
2027-02-28 $199.32 $229.25 $259.97 $293.70 $329.57 $366.45 $407.11
2027-03-07 $199.70 $230.37 $261.90 $296.56 $333.46 $371.44 $413.35
2027-03-14 $198.98 $230.37 $262.68 $298.26 $336.19 $375.26 $418.43
2027-03-21 $197.90 $229.96 $263.02 $299.48 $338.40 $378.55 $422.95

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.