68% Bear Case

$2.15

23-Week Base Target

$6.78

68% Bull Case

$17.64

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of INJ prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 3.87 4.49 5.16 5.94 6.81 7.76 8.85
2026-06-21 3.21 4.09 5.11 6.37 7.88 9.62 11.76
2026-06-28 2.67 3.71 5.00 6.70 8.85 11.44 14.79
2026-07-05 2.16 3.27 4.74 6.78 9.50 12.94 17.56
2026-07-12 1.69 2.79 4.34 6.62 9.80 14.00 19.86
2026-07-19 1.33 2.40 4.00 6.47 10.07 15.02 22.16
2026-07-26 1.07 2.09 3.72 6.36 10.38 16.09 24.58
2026-08-02 0.89 1.88 3.54 6.37 10.84 17.38 27.38
2026-08-09 0.78 1.77 3.53 6.62 11.67 19.25 31.09
2026-08-16 0.66 1.62 3.40 6.67 12.17 20.66 34.19
2026-08-23 0.52 1.38 3.09 6.36 12.08 21.15 35.94
2026-08-30 0.41 1.20 2.85 6.16 12.11 21.80 37.96
2026-09-06 0.37 1.16 2.88 6.43 13.01 23.90 42.36
2026-09-13 0.35 1.15 2.98 6.86 14.19 26.54 47.73
2026-09-20 0.32 1.12 3.02 7.18 15.21 28.95 52.87
2026-09-27 0.27 1.04 2.94 7.25 15.77 30.63 56.87
2026-10-04 0.22 0.92 2.76 7.07 15.84 31.47 59.54
2026-10-11 0.18 0.82 2.59 6.90 15.92 32.33 62.25
2026-10-18 0.15 0.73 2.45 6.79 16.09 33.33 65.24
2026-10-25 0.12 0.68 2.37 6.79 16.50 34.78 69.05
2026-11-01 0.11 0.66 2.40 7.06 17.44 37.25 74.73
2026-11-08 0.10 0.62 2.34 7.10 17.94 38.91 79.03
2026-11-15 0.07 0.53 2.15 6.78 17.64 39.06 80.67