68% Bear Case

$0.04

23-Week Base Target

$0.11

68% Bull Case

$0.27

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of IMX10603 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.20 0.22
2026-06-21 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.19 0.24 0.30
2026-06-28 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.27 0.36
2026-07-05 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.21 0.29 0.41
2026-07-12 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.21 0.31 0.45
2026-07-19 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.21 0.32 0.49
2026-07-26 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.33 0.53
2026-08-02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.22 0.35 0.58
2026-08-09 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.13 0.23 0.38 0.64
2026-08-16 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.13 0.23 0.40 0.70
2026-08-23 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.13 0.23 0.42 0.74
2026-08-30 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.23 0.43 0.78
2026-09-06 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.25 0.47 0.88
2026-09-13 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.26 0.50 0.97
2026-09-20 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.27 0.53 1.06
2026-09-27 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.27 0.54 1.09
2026-10-04 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.26 0.54 1.12
2026-10-11 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.54 1.16
2026-10-18 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.26 0.55 1.20
2026-10-25 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.26 0.56 1.25
2026-11-01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.27 0.60 1.36
2026-11-08 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.27 0.62 1.43
2026-11-15 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.27 0.63 1.49