IBIT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$37.41

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$33.45

Bear 68%

$19.05

Bull 68%

$52.76

68% Range Width

100.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $30.56 $32.67 $34.76 $36.99 $39.31 $41.64 $44.16
2026-08-09 $27.52 $30.57 $33.68 $37.06 $40.64 $44.29 $48.30
2026-08-16 $25.01 $28.77 $32.66 $36.97 $41.60 $46.40 $51.73
2026-08-23 $23.31 $27.66 $32.23 $37.38 $42.97 $48.84 $55.44
2026-08-30 $20.36 $25.00 $29.98 $35.67 $41.94 $48.60 $56.18
2026-09-06 $19.28 $24.34 $29.84 $36.19 $43.28 $50.87 $59.57
2026-09-13 $18.53 $23.97 $29.97 $36.98 $44.86 $53.37 $63.18
2026-09-20 $16.97 $22.60 $28.90 $36.35 $44.81 $54.03 $64.74
2026-09-27 $16.30 $22.23 $28.93 $36.94 $46.10 $56.15 $67.89
2026-10-04 $15.68 $21.87 $28.95 $37.48 $47.31 $58.16 $70.90
2026-10-11 $14.75 $21.10 $28.45 $37.38 $47.78 $59.31 $72.93
2026-10-18 $13.33 $19.66 $27.11 $36.27 $47.03 $59.06 $73.35
2026-10-25 $11.88 $18.26 $25.92 $35.49 $46.85 $59.67 $75.02
2026-11-01 $10.85 $17.35 $25.29 $35.35 $47.42 $61.15 $77.70
2026-11-08 $9.88 $16.45 $24.64 $35.15 $47.90 $62.52 $80.25
2026-11-15 $9.23 $15.93 $24.44 $35.48 $48.99 $64.60 $83.62
2026-11-22 $7.76 $14.23 $22.65 $33.80 $47.61 $63.74 $83.55
2026-11-29 $7.31 $13.90 $22.62 $34.29 $48.86 $65.96 $87.07
2026-12-06 $7.00 $13.75 $22.81 $35.04 $50.41 $68.54 $91.01
2026-12-13 $6.21 $12.84 $21.95 $34.42 $50.27 $69.08 $92.53
2026-12-20 $5.90 $12.63 $22.02 $34.99 $51.57 $71.35 $96.10
2026-12-27 $5.59 $12.42 $22.06 $35.51 $52.81 $73.55 $99.57
2027-01-03 $5.11 $11.89 $21.65 $35.42 $53.27 $74.79 $101.90
2027-01-10 $4.37 $10.88 $20.52 $34.34 $52.46 $74.45 $102.33
2027-01-17 $3.67 $9.94 $19.55 $33.58 $52.20 $75.00 $104.08
2027-01-24 $3.19 $9.34 $19.05 $33.45 $52.76 $76.57 $107.09

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.