IBIT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$43.50

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$44.49

Bear 68%

$27.84

Bull 68%

$67.05

68% Range Width

88.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $36.92 $39.27 $41.61 $44.12 $46.74 $49.38 $52.25
2026-10-04 $33.84 $37.29 $40.81 $44.67 $48.78 $53.02 $57.70
2026-10-11 $31.07 $35.28 $39.67 $44.57 $49.89 $55.45 $61.71
2026-10-18 $27.91 $32.59 $37.57 $43.23 $49.45 $56.07 $63.60
2026-10-25 $25.47 $30.53 $35.98 $42.28 $49.31 $56.87 $65.58
2026-11-01 $23.90 $29.31 $35.23 $42.16 $49.98 $58.49 $68.39
2026-11-08 $22.39 $28.06 $34.37 $41.83 $50.35 $59.71 $70.71
2026-11-15 $22.01 $28.07 $34.90 $43.05 $52.45 $62.85 $75.16
2026-11-22 $20.95 $27.25 $34.42 $43.07 $53.14 $64.37 $77.76
2026-11-29 $20.25 $26.79 $34.33 $43.52 $54.29 $66.40 $80.93
2026-12-06 $19.62 $26.40 $34.28 $43.98 $55.45 $68.42 $84.08
2026-12-13 $18.44 $25.29 $33.36 $43.37 $55.31 $68.93 $85.46
2026-12-20 $17.69 $24.82 $33.33 $44.02 $56.89 $71.69 $89.80
2026-12-27 $16.92 $24.30 $33.22 $44.58 $58.38 $74.40 $94.14
2027-01-03 $15.88 $23.39 $32.61 $44.48 $59.08 $76.15 $97.36
2027-01-10 $14.34 $21.75 $31.03 $43.14 $58.21 $76.01 $98.31
2027-01-17 $13.11 $20.46 $29.81 $42.19 $57.77 $76.36 $99.81
2027-01-24 $12.32 $19.72 $29.27 $42.07 $58.33 $77.87 $102.70
2027-01-31 $11.51 $18.90 $28.60 $41.74 $58.60 $79.02 $105.13
2027-02-07 $11.37 $19.01 $29.13 $42.97 $60.82 $82.57 $110.50
2027-02-14 $10.78 $18.45 $28.75 $42.98 $61.51 $84.21 $113.53
2027-02-21 $10.38 $18.15 $28.71 $43.43 $62.73 $86.51 $117.38
2027-02-28 $10.02 $17.87 $28.69 $43.89 $63.97 $88.84 $121.28
2027-03-07 $9.30 $17.06 $27.89 $43.29 $63.79 $89.39 $122.95
2027-03-14 $8.90 $16.75 $27.90 $43.93 $65.46 $92.51 $128.17
2027-03-21 $8.46 $16.40 $27.84 $44.49 $67.05 $95.58 $133.41

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.