HPE SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$45.64

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$62.03

Bear 68%

$40.88

Bull 68%

$101.50

68% Range Width

97.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $36.77 $39.23 $41.81 $44.71 $47.90 $51.30 $55.21
2026-08-09 $34.31 $37.68 $41.35 $45.66 $50.61 $56.14 $62.84
2026-08-16 $32.72 $36.65 $41.04 $46.35 $52.65 $59.94 $69.10
2026-08-23 $32.01 $36.49 $41.61 $47.99 $55.77 $65.08 $77.21
2026-08-30 $31.60 $36.57 $42.40 $49.81 $59.12 $70.58 $86.04
2026-09-06 $30.59 $35.86 $42.14 $50.29 $60.76 $73.99 $92.40
2026-09-13 $30.15 $35.78 $42.60 $51.65 $63.53 $78.95 $101.08
2026-09-20 $29.19 $35.00 $42.14 $51.76 $64.64 $81.74 $106.94
2026-09-27 $28.09 $33.96 $41.28 $51.28 $64.92 $83.37 $111.21
2026-10-04 $27.57 $33.66 $41.34 $52.00 $66.80 $87.28 $119.03
2026-10-11 $27.24 $33.56 $41.64 $53.04 $69.16 $91.97 $128.34
2026-10-18 $26.49 $32.87 $41.13 $52.92 $69.85 $94.26 $134.10
2026-10-25 $25.26 $31.59 $39.88 $51.86 $69.37 $95.10 $138.20
2026-11-01 $24.90 $31.46 $40.16 $52.98 $72.12 $101.02 $151.12
2026-11-08 $24.49 $31.22 $40.28 $53.85 $74.51 $106.51 $163.86
2026-11-15 $24.47 $31.52 $41.16 $55.85 $78.75 $115.28 $183.39
2026-11-22 $24.53 $31.92 $42.18 $58.10 $83.53 $125.33 $206.58
2026-11-29 $24.09 $31.58 $42.11 $58.69 $85.65 $131.04 $222.28
2026-12-06 $23.98 $31.72 $42.74 $60.37 $89.67 $140.40 $246.55
2026-12-13 $23.45 $31.23 $42.40 $60.50 $91.08 $145.18 $261.98
2026-12-20 $22.76 $30.47 $41.64 $59.92 $91.21 $147.58 $272.56
2026-12-27 $22.49 $30.32 $41.78 $60.80 $93.95 $155.12 $295.79
2027-01-03 $22.33 $30.33 $42.17 $62.09 $97.48 $164.54 $325.05
2027-01-10 $21.84 $29.81 $41.71 $61.94 $98.39 $168.79 $342.41
2027-01-17 $20.99 $28.79 $40.51 $60.63 $97.35 $169.54 $352.67
2027-01-24 $20.79 $28.76 $40.88 $62.03 $101.50 $181.64 $395.68

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.