HIVE SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$3.18

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$3.33

Bear 68%

$1.37

Bull 68%

$9.07

68% Range Width

231.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $2.27 $2.55 $2.87 $3.23 $3.66 $4.13 $4.69
2026-08-09 $1.76 $2.14 $2.58 $3.14 $3.85 $4.72 $5.86
2026-08-16 $1.55 $1.98 $2.53 $3.29 $4.30 $5.64 $7.56
2026-08-23 $1.36 $1.83 $2.45 $3.34 $4.62 $6.42 $9.17
2026-08-30 $1.20 $1.68 $2.33 $3.32 $4.82 $7.04 $10.66
2026-09-06 $1.08 $1.55 $2.24 $3.31 $5.01 $7.66 $12.22
2026-09-13 $1.03 $1.52 $2.27 $3.49 $5.50 $8.79 $14.79
2026-09-20 $0.9706 $1.48 $2.27 $3.62 $5.93 $9.89 $17.50
2026-09-27 $0.8873 $1.39 $2.18 $3.58 $6.07 $10.49 $19.41
2026-10-04 $0.8274 $1.32 $2.13 $3.60 $6.31 $11.31 $21.87
2026-10-11 $0.7639 $1.25 $2.06 $3.56 $6.42 $11.91 $24.00
2026-10-18 $0.6886 $1.14 $1.92 $3.40 $6.29 $12.02 $25.10
2026-10-25 $0.6351 $1.08 $1.85 $3.36 $6.42 $12.70 $27.71
2026-11-01 $0.5746 $0.9925 $1.74 $3.24 $6.37 $13.02 $29.60
2026-11-08 $0.5559 $0.9817 $1.76 $3.38 $6.88 $14.65 $35.06
2026-11-15 $0.5275 $0.9500 $1.74 $3.44 $7.21 $15.92 $39.96
2026-11-22 $0.4939 $0.9052 $1.69 $3.42 $7.38 $16.86 $44.20
2026-11-29 $0.4643 $0.8655 $1.65 $3.41 $7.57 $17.85 $48.89
2026-12-06 $0.4561 $0.8670 $1.69 $3.59 $8.22 $20.19 $58.23
2026-12-13 $0.4441 $0.8596 $1.71 $3.72 $8.80 $22.43 $68.02
2026-12-20 $0.4176 $0.8198 $1.66 $3.68 $8.93 $23.44 $74.08
2026-12-27 $0.3985 $0.7940 $1.63 $3.70 $9.22 $25.01 $82.57
2027-01-03 $0.3759 $0.7589 $1.59 $3.66 $9.33 $26.06 $89.56
2027-01-10 $0.3461 $0.7058 $1.49 $3.50 $9.08 $25.94 $92.05
2027-01-17 $0.3255 $0.6732 $1.45 $3.46 $9.21 $27.15 $100.72
2027-01-24 $0.3004 $0.6288 $1.37 $3.33 $9.07 $27.52 $106.20

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.