GFS SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$44.20

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$41.79

Bear 68%

$26.21

Bull 68%

$62.93

68% Range Width

87.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $36.74 $39.10 $41.47 $44.00 $46.65 $49.32 $52.22
2026-10-04 $33.03 $36.51 $40.07 $43.99 $48.17 $52.49 $57.28
2026-10-11 $30.20 $34.50 $39.01 $44.06 $49.56 $55.34 $61.87
2026-10-18 $27.23 $32.09 $37.29 $43.23 $49.80 $56.82 $64.86
2026-10-25 $25.44 $30.82 $36.66 $43.46 $51.09 $59.35 $68.93
2026-11-01 $23.82 $29.60 $35.99 $43.54 $52.12 $61.53 $72.55
2026-11-08 $22.23 $28.32 $35.16 $43.34 $52.77 $63.22 $75.59
2026-11-15 $20.76 $27.09 $34.30 $43.05 $53.24 $64.66 $78.29
2026-11-22 $18.81 $25.19 $32.58 $41.66 $52.38 $64.51 $79.13
2026-11-29 $17.56 $24.05 $31.70 $41.21 $52.56 $65.51 $81.26
2026-12-06 $16.85 $23.55 $31.54 $41.59 $53.68 $67.59 $84.61
2026-12-13 $16.37 $23.31 $31.68 $42.29 $55.18 $70.10 $88.48
2026-12-20 $15.64 $22.74 $31.42 $42.55 $56.18 $72.09 $91.81
2026-12-27 $14.93 $22.18 $31.15 $42.77 $57.13 $74.01 $95.06
2027-01-03 $14.26 $21.63 $30.86 $42.95 $58.01 $75.85 $98.23
2027-01-10 $13.21 $20.53 $29.85 $42.19 $57.71 $76.24 $99.65
2027-01-17 $12.67 $20.10 $29.66 $42.44 $58.66 $78.13 $102.88
2027-01-24 $12.10 $19.59 $29.36 $42.53 $59.38 $79.75 $105.76
2027-01-31 $11.45 $18.95 $28.85 $42.35 $59.75 $80.91 $108.09
2027-02-07 $10.81 $18.29 $28.29 $42.06 $59.96 $81.87 $110.16
2027-02-14 $9.80 $17.06 $26.94 $40.70 $58.77 $81.06 $110.04
2027-02-21 $9.19 $16.38 $26.30 $40.26 $58.74 $81.68 $111.67
2027-02-28 $8.90 $16.16 $26.27 $40.63 $59.75 $83.61 $114.92
2027-03-07 $8.73 $16.11 $26.48 $41.32 $61.18 $86.08 $118.85
2027-03-14 $8.39 $15.81 $26.36 $41.58 $62.08 $87.92 $122.08
2027-03-21 $8.05 $15.49 $26.21 $41.79 $62.93 $89.71 $125.26

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.