GFS SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$53.18

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$49.19

Bear 68%

$31.16

Bull 68%

$72.94

68% Range Width

84.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $43.69 $46.38 $49.05 $51.90 $54.86 $57.83 $61.05
2026-08-16 $38.62 $42.57 $46.59 $50.98 $55.63 $60.40 $65.66
2026-08-23 $34.96 $39.84 $44.92 $50.57 $56.67 $63.02 $70.14
2026-08-30 $31.10 $36.60 $42.43 $49.03 $56.28 $63.95 $72.65
2026-09-06 $28.49 $34.52 $41.02 $48.50 $56.83 $65.75 $75.99
2026-09-13 $26.81 $33.34 $40.49 $48.83 $58.22 $68.39 $80.18
2026-09-20 $25.75 $32.77 $40.57 $49.77 $60.24 $71.68 $85.04
2026-09-27 $24.44 $31.83 $40.14 $50.07 $61.48 $74.06 $88.86
2026-10-04 $23.23 $30.92 $39.70 $50.30 $62.59 $76.25 $92.45
2026-10-11 $22.11 $30.08 $39.28 $50.50 $63.62 $78.32 $95.86
2026-10-18 $20.49 $28.56 $37.99 $49.63 $63.38 $78.90 $97.55
2026-10-25 $19.76 $28.07 $37.92 $50.16 $64.74 $81.30 $101.29
2026-11-01 $18.69 $27.17 $37.33 $50.12 $65.46 $83.01 $104.34
2026-11-08 $17.54 $26.12 $36.55 $49.80 $65.84 $84.32 $106.92
2026-11-15 $16.57 $25.26 $35.95 $49.68 $66.44 $85.87 $109.77
2026-11-22 $15.07 $23.65 $34.37 $48.30 $65.48 $85.56 $110.40
2026-11-29 $14.10 $22.68 $33.56 $47.84 $65.60 $86.50 $112.50
2026-12-06 $13.54 $22.25 $33.41 $48.20 $66.71 $88.60 $115.97
2026-12-13 $13.27 $22.19 $33.74 $49.15 $68.54 $91.58 $120.48
2026-12-20 $12.75 $21.77 $33.58 $49.45 $69.56 $93.58 $123.82
2026-12-27 $12.23 $21.33 $33.37 $49.69 $70.48 $95.44 $127.00
2027-01-03 $11.73 $20.89 $33.14 $49.88 $71.35 $97.23 $130.09
2027-01-10 $10.86 $19.88 $32.13 $49.03 $70.87 $97.37 $131.16
2027-01-17 $10.54 $19.66 $32.17 $49.55 $72.13 $99.63 $134.81
2027-01-24 $10.00 $19.11 $31.76 $49.51 $72.71 $101.11 $137.59
2027-01-31 $9.38 $18.42 $31.16 $49.19 $72.94 $102.16 $139.86

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.