GlobalFoundries price forecast: what the model says

GFS SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$40.78

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$37.35

Bear 68%

$23.55

Bull 68%

$56.66

68% Range Width

88.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $33.17 $35.26 $37.36 $39.63 $42.00 $44.40 $47.02
2026-11-29 $29.31 $32.43 $35.66 $39.23 $43.08 $47.08 $51.56
2026-12-06 $26.92 $30.81 $34.92 $39.58 $44.71 $50.16 $56.39
2026-12-13 $25.36 $29.87 $34.74 $40.37 $46.68 $53.51 $61.42
2026-12-20 $23.92 $28.90 $34.39 $40.85 $48.20 $56.27 $65.76
2026-12-27 $22.61 $27.97 $33.98 $41.17 $49.46 $58.68 $69.66
2027-01-03 $21.42 $27.10 $33.56 $41.39 $50.55 $60.86 $73.26
2027-01-10 $19.86 $25.68 $32.42 $40.69 $50.50 $61.68 $75.26
2027-01-17 $18.89 $24.93 $32.01 $40.81 $51.37 $63.51 $78.42
2027-01-24 $17.96 $24.16 $31.53 $40.81 $52.05 $65.11 $81.29
2027-01-31 $16.86 $23.13 $30.69 $40.32 $52.12 $65.95 $83.23
2027-02-07 $15.94 $22.29 $30.04 $40.02 $52.38 $67.00 $85.41
2027-02-14 $14.58 $20.84 $28.60 $38.74 $51.44 $66.61 $85.89
2027-02-21 $13.69 $19.97 $27.86 $38.30 $51.51 $67.44 $87.84
2027-02-28 $13.19 $19.59 $27.74 $38.62 $52.52 $69.41 $91.19
2027-03-07 $12.92 $19.50 $27.97 $39.39 $54.09 $72.07 $95.41
2027-03-14 $12.55 $19.25 $27.98 $39.86 $55.27 $74.26 $99.05
2027-03-21 $12.13 $18.93 $27.88 $40.16 $56.24 $76.18 $102.36
2027-03-28 $11.71 $18.58 $27.72 $40.38 $57.09 $77.94 $105.49
2027-04-04 $10.98 $17.76 $26.89 $39.70 $56.74 $78.18 $106.69
2027-04-11 $10.58 $17.39 $26.68 $39.82 $57.43 $79.73 $109.54
2027-04-18 $10.16 $16.98 $26.39 $39.81 $57.95 $81.06 $112.12
2027-04-25 $9.60 $16.35 $25.76 $39.33 $57.82 $81.54 $113.61
2027-05-02 $9.13 $15.83 $25.29 $39.04 $57.93 $82.32 $115.47
2027-05-09 $8.36 $14.84 $24.12 $37.79 $56.74 $81.42 $115.22
2027-05-16 $7.88 $14.27 $23.55 $37.35 $56.66 $81.98 $116.85

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.