FORM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$98.80

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$146.93

Bear 68%

$52.47

Bull 68%

N/A

68% Range Width

N/A

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $66.24 $74.43 $84.36 $97.68 $115.83 $141.04 $181.90
2026-08-16 $54.81 $64.37 $77.15 $96.73 $129.06 $189.51 $362.18
2026-08-23 $48.81 $58.95 $73.41 $97.81 $145.26 $268.72 $1,712.14
2026-08-30 $44.42 $54.61 $69.78 $97.17 $157.93 $382.86 N/A
2026-09-06 $41.65 $52.04 $68.10 $99.09 $178.38 $695.66 N/A
2026-09-13 $39.72 $50.34 $67.39 $102.50 $207.91 $3,354.61 N/A
2026-09-20 $38.52 $49.57 $68.01 $108.93 $261.03 N/A N/A
2026-09-27 $37.08 $48.24 $67.36 $112.22 $313.94 N/A N/A
2026-10-04 $35.55 $46.56 $65.79 $112.71 $358.74 N/A N/A
2026-10-11 $34.24 $45.15 $64.52 $113.56 $418.85 N/A N/A
2026-10-18 $32.82 $43.41 $62.39 $111.39 $448.51 N/A N/A
2026-10-25 $31.98 $42.59 $61.95 $114.13 $578.41 N/A N/A
2026-11-01 $30.96 $41.54 $61.27 $117.07 $857.05 N/A N/A
2026-11-08 $29.75 $40.11 $59.64 $116.66 $1,196.87 N/A N/A
2026-11-15 $28.81 $39.06 $58.70 $118.42 $2,576.30 N/A N/A
2026-11-22 $27.81 $37.82 $57.20 $117.54 $7,563.94 N/A N/A
2026-11-29 $27.11 $37.08 $56.67 $120.34 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-06 $26.58 $36.59 $56.64 $125.36 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-13 $26.27 $36.48 $57.46 $135.00 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-20 $25.77 $35.97 $57.29 $140.03 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-27 $25.15 $35.21 $56.38 $140.79 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-03 $24.59 $34.53 $55.62 $142.10 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-10 $23.93 $33.60 $54.17 $138.75 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-17 $23.54 $33.19 $53.96 $142.98 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-24 $23.07 $32.66 $53.59 $147.57 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-31 $22.46 $31.86 $52.47 $146.93 N/A N/A N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.