FBTC SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$66.81

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$68.37

Bear 68%

$42.83

Bull 68%

$102.89

68% Range Width

87.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $56.79 $60.37 $63.95 $67.79 $71.78 $75.81 $80.19
2026-10-04 $52.29 $57.50 $62.81 $68.63 $74.81 $81.17 $88.20
2026-10-11 $48.12 $54.49 $61.11 $68.49 $76.46 $84.80 $94.16
2026-10-18 $43.26 $50.37 $57.89 $66.42 $75.79 $85.71 $97.00
2026-10-25 $39.48 $47.16 $55.43 $64.95 $75.54 $86.92 $100.00
2026-11-01 $37.02 $45.25 $54.25 $64.75 $76.57 $89.41 $104.31
2026-11-08 $34.66 $43.32 $52.93 $64.26 $77.18 $91.33 $107.93
2026-11-15 $34.04 $43.32 $53.73 $66.14 $80.40 $96.16 $114.76
2026-11-22 $32.39 $42.03 $52.98 $66.17 $81.47 $98.52 $118.79
2026-11-29 $31.28 $41.31 $52.84 $66.85 $83.25 $101.65 $123.67
2026-12-06 $30.29 $40.70 $52.77 $67.58 $85.05 $104.79 $128.54
2026-12-13 $28.47 $38.99 $51.34 $66.65 $84.86 $105.58 $130.70
2026-12-20 $27.30 $38.25 $51.29 $67.64 $87.29 $109.84 $137.36
2026-12-27 $26.11 $37.44 $51.13 $68.50 $89.57 $113.95 $143.94
2027-01-03 $24.51 $36.05 $50.19 $68.36 $90.63 $116.64 $148.86
2027-01-10 $22.13 $33.53 $47.76 $66.30 $89.31 $116.43 $150.33
2027-01-17 $20.21 $31.51 $45.87 $64.83 $88.62 $116.94 $152.59
2027-01-24 $18.98 $30.36 $45.03 $64.63 $89.47 $119.25 $157.00
2027-01-31 $17.72 $29.10 $44.00 $64.14 $89.91 $121.04 $160.77
2027-02-07 $17.49 $29.25 $44.81 $66.01 $93.31 $126.47 $168.96
2027-02-14 $16.57 $28.39 $44.22 $66.04 $94.37 $129.00 $173.63
2027-02-21 $15.96 $27.92 $44.15 $66.73 $96.25 $132.54 $179.53
2027-02-28 $15.40 $27.50 $44.13 $67.46 $98.17 $136.14 $185.52
2027-03-07 $14.29 $26.24 $42.89 $66.52 $97.91 $136.99 $188.09
2027-03-14 $13.66 $25.77 $42.92 $67.52 $100.48 $141.78 $196.08
2027-03-21 $13.00 $25.23 $42.83 $68.37 $102.89 $146.44 $204.01

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.