FBTC SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$57.21

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$50.81

Bear 68%

$28.79

Bull 68%

$80.35

68% Range Width

101.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $46.70 $49.92 $53.12 $56.54 $60.08 $63.64 $67.48
2026-08-09 $42.02 $46.69 $51.44 $56.62 $62.08 $67.66 $73.79
2026-08-16 $38.16 $43.92 $49.87 $56.47 $63.54 $70.88 $79.03
2026-08-23 $35.55 $42.21 $49.21 $57.08 $65.64 $74.61 $84.70
2026-08-30 $31.01 $38.12 $45.74 $54.45 $64.04 $74.23 $85.80
2026-09-06 $29.35 $37.09 $45.51 $55.24 $66.07 $77.68 $90.98
2026-09-13 $28.19 $36.52 $45.70 $56.43 $68.48 $81.50 $96.50
2026-09-20 $25.78 $34.40 $44.04 $55.44 $68.39 $82.49 $98.85
2026-09-27 $24.76 $33.83 $44.09 $56.34 $70.36 $85.72 $103.66
2026-10-04 $23.81 $33.29 $44.13 $57.18 $72.23 $88.82 $108.28
2026-10-11 $22.39 $32.11 $43.36 $57.04 $72.94 $90.58 $111.40
2026-10-18 $20.17 $29.86 $41.26 $55.28 $71.73 $90.12 $111.95
2026-10-25 $17.95 $27.71 $39.43 $54.07 $71.45 $91.05 $114.50
2026-11-01 $16.37 $26.31 $38.46 $53.85 $72.31 $93.30 $118.59
2026-11-08 $14.88 $24.92 $37.45 $53.54 $73.04 $95.40 $122.49
2026-11-15 $13.88 $24.13 $37.14 $54.05 $74.72 $98.57 $127.65
2026-11-22 $11.63 $21.51 $34.39 $51.45 $72.59 $97.25 $127.53
2026-11-29 $10.94 $21.00 $34.34 $52.19 $74.49 $100.63 $132.89
2026-12-06 $10.46 $20.76 $34.62 $53.33 $76.85 $104.58 $138.91
2026-12-13 $9.24 $19.36 $33.29 $52.37 $76.60 $105.37 $141.20
2026-12-20 $8.77 $19.04 $33.39 $53.23 $78.59 $108.84 $146.65
2026-12-27 $8.31 $18.71 $33.46 $54.04 $80.51 $112.22 $151.98
2027-01-03 $7.58 $17.90 $32.83 $53.91 $81.23 $114.13 $155.56
2027-01-10 $6.43 $16.33 $31.06 $52.20 $79.91 $113.53 $156.11
2027-01-17 $5.37 $14.89 $29.57 $51.03 $79.51 $114.37 $158.79
2027-01-24 $4.64 $13.97 $28.79 $50.81 $80.35 $116.75 $163.38

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.