DELL SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$392.70

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$598.67

Bear 68%

$344.88

Bull 68%

$1,143.75

68% Range Width

133.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $304.59 $329.88 $356.65 $387.18 $421.10 $457.71 $500.35
2026-08-09 $269.44 $305.22 $345.34 $393.93 $451.51 $518.02 $601.27
2026-08-16 $252.71 $293.93 $341.73 $401.78 $475.85 $565.12 $682.25
2026-08-23 $244.18 $291.04 $347.14 $420.08 $513.59 $631.12 $792.71
2026-08-30 $227.82 $276.53 $336.27 $415.99 $521.29 $658.03 $853.18
2026-09-06 $221.43 $273.71 $339.35 $429.34 $551.84 $716.42 $960.73
2026-09-13 $219.67 $276.32 $349.13 $451.57 $595.28 $795.07 $1,103.79
2026-09-20 $214.42 $273.84 $351.76 $463.92 $625.58 $857.30 $1,228.82
2026-09-27 $207.27 $268.24 $349.63 $469.19 $645.68 $905.84 $1,337.29
2026-10-04 $202.97 $266.17 $352.02 $480.74 $675.47 $970.82 $1,478.20
2026-10-11 $198.41 $263.38 $353.10 $490.24 $702.51 $1,033.42 $1,621.64
2026-10-18 $188.08 $251.91 $341.13 $479.44 $697.25 $1,043.85 $1,676.23
2026-10-25 $179.43 $242.94 $333.01 $475.07 $703.59 $1,076.64 $1,779.89
2026-11-01 $174.60 $239.29 $332.56 $482.60 $729.88 $1,145.74 $1,960.45
2026-11-08 $171.11 $237.28 $334.25 $493.31 $761.82 $1,227.05 $2,175.00
2026-11-15 $170.99 $240.25 $343.60 $516.84 $817.45 $1,356.49 $2,506.56
2026-11-22 $164.04 $232.49 $335.84 $511.63 $822.35 $1,392.63 $2,648.61
2026-11-29 $162.68 $233.21 $341.38 $528.95 $868.77 $1,512.50 $2,993.51
2026-12-06 $163.84 $237.85 $353.34 $557.99 $939.26 $1,688.11 $3,501.10
2026-12-13 $162.17 $237.90 $357.80 $574.16 $986.91 $1,823.21 $3,940.40
2026-12-20 $158.76 $234.97 $357.14 $581.06 $1,017.08 $1,924.93 $4,316.44
2026-12-27 $157.08 $234.73 $360.93 $596.23 $1,064.98 $2,071.32 $4,845.50
2027-01-03 $154.96 $233.67 $363.22 $608.71 $1,108.50 $2,213.52 $5,398.43
2027-01-10 $148.37 $224.91 $351.79 $594.51 $1,094.95 $2,220.78 $5,553.09
2027-01-17 $142.98 $218.28 $344.39 $588.78 $1,101.61 $2,283.70 $5,917.02
2027-01-24 $140.27 $216.14 $344.88 $598.67 $1,143.75 $2,441.67 $6,641.16

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.