CRWD SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$242.13

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$297.28

Bear 68%

$214.69

Bull 68%

$406.91

68% Range Width

64.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $214.23 $226.31 $238.44 $251.54 $265.27 $279.23 $294.49
2026-10-04 $196.20 $213.65 $231.64 $251.57 $273.01 $295.35 $320.39
2026-10-11 $184.69 $205.74 $227.88 $252.87 $280.26 $309.33 $342.51
2026-10-18 $176.10 $199.93 $225.40 $254.60 $287.10 $322.13 $362.69
2026-10-25 $169.13 $195.23 $223.54 $256.44 $293.56 $334.09 $381.61
2026-11-01 $162.01 $189.88 $220.48 $256.51 $297.65 $343.09 $396.99
2026-11-08 $157.83 $187.54 $220.55 $259.84 $305.21 $355.85 $416.52
2026-11-15 $152.39 $183.45 $218.34 $260.31 $309.29 $364.49 $431.25
2026-11-22 $148.19 $180.57 $217.33 $261.98 $314.59 $374.43 $447.44
2026-11-29 $144.95 $178.66 $217.29 $264.66 $320.97 $385.55 $465.01
2026-12-06 $141.45 $176.26 $216.54 $266.37 $326.10 $395.18 $480.82
2026-12-13 $139.35 $175.45 $217.58 $270.12 $333.62 $407.60 $499.99
2026-12-20 $137.21 $174.57 $218.55 $273.87 $341.26 $420.37 $519.89
2026-12-27 $133.07 $171.11 $216.29 $273.59 $343.97 $427.21 $532.70
2027-01-03 $130.05 $168.91 $215.46 $274.97 $348.63 $436.38 $548.33
2027-01-10 $127.45 $167.14 $215.08 $276.83 $353.82 $446.17 $564.78
2027-01-17 $125.06 $165.56 $214.85 $278.82 $359.14 $456.11 $581.44
2027-01-24 $121.90 $162.88 $213.16 $278.89 $362.00 $463.00 $594.35
2027-01-31 $120.54 $162.47 $214.28 $282.47 $369.26 $475.36 $614.14
2027-02-07 $117.85 $160.25 $213.03 $282.99 $372.61 $482.83 $627.84
2027-02-14 $115.87 $158.89 $212.83 $284.79 $377.55 $492.31 $644.12
2027-02-21 $114.45 $158.22 $213.48 $287.67 $383.87 $503.54 $662.68
2027-02-28 $112.65 $157.00 $213.36 $289.51 $388.84 $513.08 $679.15
2027-03-07 $111.87 $157.10 $214.95 $293.55 $396.66 $526.29 $700.39
2027-03-14 $111.00 $157.10 $216.45 $297.58 $404.62 $539.90 $722.51
2027-03-21 $108.37 $154.67 $214.69 $297.28 $406.91 $546.23 $735.29

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.