CRWD SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$194.82

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$222.97

Bear 68%

$165.36

Bull 68%

$295.51

68% Range Width

58.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $167.99 $176.59 $185.15 $194.31 $203.83 $213.42 $223.80
2026-08-09 $154.04 $166.68 $179.55 $193.62 $208.56 $223.92 $240.90
2026-08-16 $146.42 $161.88 $177.89 $195.66 $214.82 $234.82 $257.25
2026-08-23 $139.89 $157.49 $175.96 $196.74 $219.43 $243.41 $270.61
2026-08-30 $134.64 $154.02 $174.61 $198.04 $223.90 $251.52 $283.16
2026-09-06 $130.12 $151.02 $173.46 $199.27 $228.05 $259.06 $294.91
2026-09-13 $126.31 $148.56 $172.70 $200.73 $232.26 $266.52 $306.45
2026-09-20 $123.10 $146.60 $172.32 $202.45 $236.63 $274.05 $317.99
2026-09-27 $120.72 $145.43 $172.72 $204.94 $241.76 $282.37 $330.36
2026-10-04 $116.89 $142.44 $170.90 $204.77 $243.78 $287.09 $338.61
2026-10-11 $114.02 $140.45 $170.14 $205.72 $246.98 $293.10 $348.28
2026-10-18 $111.61 $138.89 $169.77 $207.05 $250.57 $299.49 $358.36
2026-10-25 $109.28 $137.42 $169.52 $208.54 $254.39 $306.25 $369.01
2026-11-01 $105.82 $134.51 $167.49 $207.88 $255.66 $310.03 $376.20
2026-11-08 $104.18 $133.71 $167.90 $210.04 $260.20 $317.58 $387.77
2026-11-15 $102.07 $132.27 $167.49 $211.18 $263.49 $323.65 $397.62
2026-11-22 $100.21 $131.08 $167.32 $212.55 $267.02 $329.99 $407.77
2026-11-29 $98.42 $129.91 $167.13 $213.86 $270.44 $336.18 $417.75
2026-12-06 $96.85 $128.96 $167.16 $215.40 $274.12 $342.66 $428.08
2026-12-13 $95.51 $128.26 $167.45 $217.23 $278.11 $349.51 $438.85
2026-12-20 $94.65 $128.12 $168.42 $219.86 $283.08 $357.52 $451.05
2026-12-27 $92.43 $126.21 $167.14 $219.68 $284.59 $361.37 $458.23
2027-01-03 $90.88 $125.11 $166.83 $220.68 $287.52 $366.92 $467.47
2027-01-10 $89.59 $124.31 $166.88 $222.09 $290.94 $373.06 $477.43
2027-01-17 $88.33 $123.56 $167.01 $223.66 $294.63 $379.64 $488.09
2027-01-24 $86.03 $121.43 $165.36 $222.97 $295.51 $382.78 $494.57

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.