CEG SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$261.92

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$290.19

Bear 68%

$204.98

Bull 68%

$395.74

68% Range Width

65.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $215.46 $227.25 $238.93 $251.37 $264.22 $277.10 $290.98
2026-10-04 $196.39 $214.97 $233.82 $254.32 $275.97 $298.11 $322.42
2026-10-11 $181.57 $204.34 $227.83 $253.80 $281.64 $310.50 $342.63
2026-10-18 $169.83 $195.71 $222.80 $253.15 $286.09 $320.63 $359.48
2026-10-25 $162.12 $190.71 $221.02 $255.37 $293.03 $332.90 $378.13
2026-11-01 $154.56 $185.36 $218.38 $256.19 $298.04 $342.72 $393.80
2026-11-08 $149.78 $182.73 $218.44 $259.69 $305.72 $355.23 $412.20
2026-11-15 $145.13 $179.96 $218.08 $262.49 $312.44 $366.51 $429.11
2026-11-22 $139.38 $175.68 $215.78 $262.90 $316.28 $374.45 $442.20
2026-11-29 $136.71 $174.77 $217.17 $267.34 $324.55 $387.22 $460.57
2026-12-06 $131.29 $170.45 $214.47 $266.96 $327.21 $393.61 $471.71
2026-12-13 $127.96 $168.43 $214.30 $269.37 $332.96 $403.38 $486.58
2026-12-20 $122.78 $164.18 $211.54 $268.83 $335.42 $409.58 $497.64
2026-12-27 $119.93 $162.64 $211.89 $271.87 $341.99 $420.47 $514.05
2027-01-03 $115.23 $158.71 $209.28 $271.32 $344.31 $426.42 $524.78
2027-01-10 $110.74 $154.87 $206.65 $270.64 $346.37 $432.00 $535.02
2027-01-17 $108.13 $153.25 $206.61 $272.96 $351.88 $441.51 $549.74
2027-01-24 $104.89 $150.75 $205.42 $273.82 $355.61 $448.91 $561.99
2027-01-31 $103.29 $150.24 $206.58 $277.47 $362.62 $460.10 $578.62
2027-02-07 $101.41 $149.31 $207.19 $280.40 $368.74 $470.24 $594.03
2027-02-14 $98.37 $146.81 $205.78 $280.82 $371.82 $476.78 $605.24
2027-02-21 $97.55 $147.13 $207.85 $285.46 $379.93 $489.23 $623.33
2027-02-28 $94.36 $144.27 $205.87 $285.06 $381.92 $494.43 $632.91
2027-03-07 $92.69 $143.36 $206.28 $287.58 $387.41 $503.73 $647.30
2027-03-14 $89.46 $140.38 $204.13 $287.01 $389.28 $508.92 $657.08
2027-03-21 $88.01 $139.77 $204.98 $290.19 $395.74 $519.61 $673.41

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.