CEG SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$257.86

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$303.29

Bear 68%

$213.65

Bull 68%

$417.61

68% Range Width

67.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $223.44 $235.69 $247.86 $260.88 $274.39 $287.98 $302.69
2026-08-09 $201.54 $220.63 $240.13 $261.49 $284.20 $307.60 $333.48
2026-08-16 $189.54 $213.08 $237.57 $264.86 $294.37 $325.25 $359.92
2026-08-23 $180.47 $207.44 $235.93 $268.14 $303.44 $340.83 $383.33
2026-08-30 $170.93 $200.47 $232.10 $268.33 $308.50 $351.53 $400.94
2026-09-06 $165.75 $197.84 $232.61 $272.87 $317.98 $366.74 $423.23
2026-09-13 $157.87 $191.71 $228.82 $272.24 $321.36 $374.94 $437.51
2026-09-20 $153.89 $189.74 $229.46 $276.36 $329.88 $388.70 $457.87
2026-09-27 $147.80 $185.05 $226.74 $276.42 $333.60 $396.91 $471.89
2026-10-04 $144.16 $183.01 $226.90 $279.64 $340.79 $408.95 $490.15
2026-10-11 $138.77 $178.69 $224.22 $279.39 $343.85 $416.17 $502.85
2026-10-18 $133.27 $174.04 $220.98 $278.32 $345.80 $422.00 $513.88
2026-10-25 $130.03 $172.11 $220.99 $281.18 $352.49 $433.51 $531.73
2026-11-01 $125.70 $168.74 $219.20 $281.83 $356.56 $442.01 $546.16
2026-11-08 $123.23 $167.54 $219.92 $285.39 $364.02 $454.40 $565.12
2026-11-15 $120.88 $166.38 $220.60 $288.85 $371.30 $466.57 $583.82
2026-11-22 $117.00 $163.18 $218.68 $289.04 $374.60 $474.01 $596.94
2026-11-29 $115.67 $163.12 $220.56 $293.84 $383.41 $487.95 $617.74
2026-12-06 $111.74 $159.63 $218.08 $293.17 $385.52 $493.87 $629.00
2026-12-13 $110.44 $159.45 $219.69 $297.52 $393.72 $507.05 $648.91
2026-12-20 $107.17 $156.64 $217.91 $297.59 $396.63 $513.85 $661.21
2026-12-27 $105.61 $155.99 $218.82 $300.99 $403.60 $525.55 $679.39
2027-01-03 $102.46 $153.16 $216.87 $300.73 $406.01 $531.70 $690.89
2027-01-10 $99.05 $149.89 $214.29 $299.59 $407.27 $536.42 $700.62
2027-01-17 $97.39 $149.02 $214.88 $302.61 $413.89 $547.89 $718.85
2027-01-24 $94.75 $146.77 $213.65 $303.29 $417.61 $555.88 $732.96

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.