ARQQ SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$18.18

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$18.08

Bear 68%

$5.83

Bull 68%

$87.29

68% Range Width

450.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $10.54 $12.60 $15.07 $18.28 $22.38 $27.51 $34.55
2026-08-16 $8.10 $10.59 $13.93 $18.86 $26.18 $36.99 $54.92
2026-08-23 $6.88 $9.51 $13.32 $19.46 $29.54 $46.39 $78.94
2026-08-30 $5.71 $8.21 $12.01 $18.55 $30.16 $51.52 $98.30
2026-09-06 $4.95 $7.35 $11.19 $18.14 $31.39 $58.02 $123.92
2026-09-13 $4.62 $7.11 $11.26 $19.25 $35.69 $72.24 $176.95
2026-09-20 $4.39 $6.96 $11.46 $20.61 $40.93 $91.04 $259.12
2026-09-27 $3.88 $6.28 $10.59 $19.66 $40.81 $96.67 $305.84
2026-10-04 $3.61 $5.97 $10.34 $19.95 $43.68 $111.87 $406.05
2026-10-11 $3.28 $5.52 $9.77 $19.39 $44.29 $120.83 $492.89
2026-10-18 $2.93 $4.99 $8.97 $18.19 $42.84 $122.55 $547.68
2026-10-25 $2.71 $4.69 $8.57 $17.85 $43.73 $133.02 $672.15
2026-11-01 $2.51 $4.42 $8.29 $17.88 $46.19 $153.16 $928.60
2026-11-08 $2.37 $4.27 $8.22 $18.47 $50.78 $187.02 $1,440.77
2026-11-15 $2.25 $4.12 $8.16 $19.04 $55.65 $228.09 $2,293.59
2026-11-22 $2.04 $3.79 $7.61 $18.16 $55.00 $240.57 $2,880.00
2026-11-29 $1.89 $3.56 $7.26 $17.76 $56.07 $264.94 $3,958.50
2026-12-06 $1.84 $3.53 $7.39 $18.84 $63.65 $342.83 $7,775.15
2026-12-13 $1.80 $3.53 $7.59 $20.17 $73.26 $457.32 $17,927.90
2026-12-20 $1.66 $3.27 $7.12 $19.24 $71.94 $477.60 $24,251.22
2026-12-27 $1.59 $3.17 $7.02 $19.52 $76.84 $570.78 $49,351.68
2027-01-03 $1.49 $2.99 $6.70 $18.98 $77.27 $619.18 $80,902.43
2027-01-10 $1.37 $2.77 $6.23 $17.80 $73.73 $614.42 $101,478.17
2027-01-17 $1.29 $2.63 $6.00 $17.48 $74.93 $677.26 $192,438.36
2027-01-24 $1.22 $2.52 $5.85 $17.51 $79.03 $810.41 $657,593.32
2027-01-31 $1.18 $2.46 $5.83 $18.08 $87.29 $1,064.54 $7,913,418.27

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.