ARQQ SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$18.52

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$15.35

Bear 68%

$7.47

Bull 68%

$37.33

68% Range Width

194.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $11.69 $13.26 $15.02 $17.16 $19.69 $22.62 $26.29
2026-10-04 $9.97 $12.06 $14.60 $17.97 $22.39 $28.07 $36.09
2026-10-11 $8.71 $10.95 $13.82 $17.86 $23.50 $31.32 $43.33
2026-10-18 $7.59 $9.84 $12.82 $17.21 $23.68 $33.18 $48.89
2026-10-25 $6.81 $9.04 $12.12 $16.81 $24.04 $35.26 $55.08
2026-11-01 $6.23 $8.45 $11.61 $16.58 $24.59 $37.65 $62.22
2026-11-08 $5.92 $8.21 $11.56 $17.03 $26.22 $42.04 $73.92
2026-11-15 $5.57 $7.86 $11.30 $17.10 $27.22 $45.48 $84.68
2026-11-22 $5.16 $7.40 $10.82 $16.73 $27.38 $47.39 $92.77
2026-11-29 $4.79 $6.95 $10.33 $16.29 $27.34 $48.87 $100.30
2026-12-06 $4.54 $6.69 $10.09 $16.26 $28.04 $51.95 $112.47
2026-12-13 $4.40 $6.57 $10.10 $16.65 $29.61 $57.13 $131.58
2026-12-20 $4.06 $6.13 $9.54 $15.97 $28.98 $57.50 $138.31
2026-12-27 $3.98 $6.10 $9.66 $16.58 $31.14 $64.70 $167.56
2027-01-03 $3.79 $5.88 $9.44 $16.51 $31.79 $68.44 $187.92
2027-01-10 $3.54 $5.54 $8.98 $15.92 $31.22 $68.98 $197.85
2027-01-17 $3.35 $5.28 $8.65 $15.55 $31.11 $70.70 $212.87
2027-01-24 $3.20 $5.08 $8.42 $15.35 $31.35 $73.46 $233.25
2027-01-31 $3.13 $5.04 $8.47 $15.75 $33.11 $80.92 $277.21
2027-02-07 $3.03 $4.92 $8.36 $15.82 $34.04 $86.20 $315.32
2027-02-14 $2.89 $4.72 $8.09 $15.48 $33.90 $88.13 $338.87
2027-02-21 $2.74 $4.51 $7.80 $15.08 $33.53 $89.27 $359.37
2027-02-28 $2.65 $4.40 $7.67 $15.05 $34.16 $93.92 $402.83
2027-03-07 $2.61 $4.37 $7.72 $15.41 $35.90 $102.95 $480.93
2027-03-14 $2.46 $4.14 $7.35 $14.79 $34.86 $101.80 $494.16
2027-03-21 $2.44 $4.15 $7.47 $15.35 $37.33 $114.73 $621.29

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.