ARM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$250.92

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$308.90

Bear 68%

$168.80

Bull 68%

$557.13

68% Range Width

125.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $190.66 $207.80 $225.60 $245.46 $266.98 $289.61 $315.18
2026-10-04 $166.58 $190.65 $216.82 $247.35 $281.99 $320.04 $364.99
2026-10-11 $147.89 $176.21 $208.17 $246.88 $292.43 $344.30 $407.81
2026-10-18 $131.95 $162.75 $198.66 $243.52 $298.02 $362.01 $442.77
2026-10-25 $120.25 $152.90 $192.06 $242.37 $305.18 $380.93 $479.09
2026-11-01 $112.14 $146.54 $188.85 $244.56 $315.86 $403.90 $520.71
2026-11-08 $107.08 $143.44 $189.20 $250.82 $331.45 $433.17 $570.99
2026-11-15 $103.30 $141.59 $190.79 $258.44 $348.77 $464.98 $625.52
2026-11-22 $97.79 $136.97 $188.35 $260.38 $358.42 $486.90 $667.66
2026-11-29 $91.59 $130.97 $183.61 $258.77 $362.97 $501.93 $700.84
2026-12-06 $91.94 $133.95 $191.07 $274.01 $390.91 $549.26 $779.45
2026-12-13 $88.01 $130.62 $189.56 $276.56 $401.19 $572.67 $825.77
2026-12-20 $81.80 $123.99 $183.51 $273.02 $403.64 $586.54 $861.21
2026-12-27 $78.06 $120.77 $182.14 $276.14 $415.75 $614.57 $918.13
2027-01-03 $73.72 $116.35 $178.74 $276.03 $423.04 $635.87 $966.10
2027-01-10 $68.82 $110.77 $173.29 $272.46 $424.88 $649.13 $1,002.57
2027-01-17 $64.95 $106.53 $169.57 $271.24 $430.06 $667.33 $1,046.93
2027-01-24 $62.29 $104.02 $168.33 $273.71 $440.88 $694.27 $1,105.48
2027-01-31 $60.87 $103.40 $169.97 $280.70 $458.92 $732.82 $1,183.30
2027-02-07 $59.87 $103.37 $172.52 $289.19 $479.61 $776.14 $1,270.16
2027-02-14 $57.57 $101.07 $171.24 $291.35 $490.15 $803.85 $1,333.20
2027-02-21 $54.63 $97.49 $167.68 $289.55 $494.09 $821.08 $1,379.91
2027-02-28 $55.53 $100.54 $175.22 $306.53 $529.60 $890.32 $1,513.66
2027-03-07 $53.69 $98.70 $174.43 $309.37 $541.57 $921.61 $1,586.06
2027-03-14 $50.42 $94.36 $169.49 $305.43 $542.87 $936.96 $1,635.38
2027-03-21 $48.60 $92.52 $168.80 $308.90 $557.13 $974.71 $1,724.45

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.