ARM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$279.67

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$375.25

Bear 68%

$205.41

Bull 68%

$679.53

68% Range Width

126.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $219.64 $239.43 $260.03 $283.04 $308.04 $334.36 $364.18
2026-08-09 $188.76 $216.38 $246.52 $281.83 $322.06 $366.45 $419.15
2026-08-16 $172.02 $205.32 $243.08 $289.03 $343.41 $405.71 $482.47
2026-08-23 $162.55 $200.73 $245.43 $301.59 $370.23 $451.33 $554.43
2026-08-30 $151.10 $192.22 $241.76 $305.76 $386.18 $483.84 $611.39
2026-09-06 $139.26 $181.98 $234.77 $304.68 $394.76 $506.84 $656.84
2026-09-13 $136.75 $183.05 $241.59 $320.89 $425.38 $558.24 $739.97
2026-09-20 $130.45 $178.59 $240.77 $326.77 $442.49 $592.65 $802.21
2026-09-27 $121.39 $169.76 $233.50 $323.41 $446.79 $609.99 $842.11
2026-10-04 $116.02 $165.50 $231.94 $327.40 $460.82 $640.45 $900.49
2026-10-11 $109.83 $159.67 $227.78 $327.39 $469.06 $663.04 $948.60
2026-10-18 $102.88 $152.32 $221.06 $323.28 $471.12 $676.84 $984.60
2026-10-25 $98.20 $148.30 $219.29 $326.82 $485.20 $709.50 $1,050.98
2026-11-01 $92.31 $142.21 $214.22 $325.31 $491.92 $732.05 $1,104.01
2026-11-08 $89.64 $140.72 $215.76 $333.55 $513.27 $776.63 $1,191.32
2026-11-15 $88.80 $141.93 $221.31 $347.99 $544.46 $836.93 $1,304.71
2026-11-22 $85.56 $139.18 $220.65 $352.77 $561.01 $875.81 $1,387.07
2026-11-29 $81.12 $134.26 $216.32 $351.53 $567.99 $900.21 $1,447.86
2026-12-06 $81.57 $137.19 $224.38 $370.16 $606.98 $975.54 $1,591.52
2026-12-13 $79.33 $135.57 $225.07 $376.92 $627.19 $1,022.11 $1,691.27
2026-12-20 $75.02 $130.26 $219.48 $373.06 $629.81 $1,040.57 $1,746.03
2026-12-27 $72.72 $128.19 $219.06 $377.65 $646.39 $1,081.97 $1,839.74
2027-01-03 $69.68 $124.68 $216.03 $377.64 $655.20 $1,110.84 $1,913.62
2027-01-10 $65.97 $119.78 $210.41 $372.91 $655.72 $1,125.88 $1,964.63
2027-01-17 $63.68 $117.51 $209.53 $376.98 $672.61 $1,170.93 $2,072.04
2027-01-24 $60.48 $113.45 $205.41 $375.25 $679.53 $1,199.67 $2,153.33

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.