ARBK SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$2.79

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$0.5964

Bear 68%

$0.0142

Bull 68%

$5.93

68% Range Width

991.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $0.8740 $1.31 $1.89 $2.70 $3.77 $5.13 $6.97
2026-10-04 $0.4052 $0.8078 $1.46 $2.56 $4.26 $6.73 $10.48
2026-10-11 $0.1810 $0.4811 $1.08 $2.25 $4.33 $7.69 $13.28
2026-10-18 $0.0803 $0.2898 $0.8020 $1.96 $4.29 $8.40 $15.78
2026-10-25 $0.0360 $0.1807 $0.6144 $1.75 $4.27 $9.09 $18.32
2026-11-01 $0.0171 $0.1205 $0.4989 $1.63 $4.37 $10.00 $21.33
2026-11-08 $0.0088 $0.0876 $0.4347 $1.60 $4.65 $11.27 $25.18
2026-11-15 $0.0036 $0.0558 $0.3437 $1.44 $4.60 $11.85 $27.80
2026-11-22 $0.0010 $0.0308 $0.2476 $1.21 $4.27 $11.78 $29.09
2026-11-29 $0.0005 $0.0232 $0.2250 $1.22 $4.58 $13.17 $33.56
2026-12-06 $0.0004 $0.0235 $0.2498 $1.42 $5.50 $16.11 $41.66
2026-12-13 $0.0001 $0.0173 $0.2231 $1.40 $5.75 $17.50 $46.54
2026-12-20 $0.0000 $0.0121 $0.1945 $1.37 $5.96 $18.86 $51.67
2026-12-27 $0.0000 $0.0077 $0.1627 $1.29 $6.02 $19.88 $56.15
2027-01-03 $0.0000 $0.0039 $0.1204 $1.12 $5.69 $19.81 $58.10
2027-01-10 $0.0000 $0.0018 $0.0871 $0.9602 $5.34 $19.60 $59.68
2027-01-17 N/A $0.0008 $0.0646 $0.8425 $5.09 $19.63 $61.84
2027-01-24 N/A $0.0004 $0.0514 $0.7763 $5.03 $20.21 $65.45
2027-01-31 N/A $0.0002 $0.0448 $0.7595 $5.19 $21.49 $71.05
2027-02-07 N/A $0.0001 $0.0336 $0.6777 $5.01 $21.64 $73.64
2027-02-14 N/A $0.0000 $0.0218 $0.5571 $4.56 $20.81 $73.46
2027-02-21 N/A $0.0000 $0.0198 $0.5612 $4.79 $22.36 $80.13
2027-02-28 N/A $0.0000 $0.0241 $0.6679 $5.65 $26.25 $93.75
2027-03-07 N/A $0.0000 $0.0211 $0.6573 $5.82 $27.70 $100.53
2027-03-14 N/A $0.0000 $0.0179 $0.6367 $5.94 $29.07 $107.38
2027-03-21 N/A $0.0000 $0.0142 $0.5964 $5.93 $29.94 $112.90

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.