ARBK SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$3.19

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$0.6366

Bear 68%

$0.0135

Bull 68%

$6.52

68% Range Width

1022.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $0.9336 $1.41 $2.05 $2.93 $4.12 $5.62 $7.66
2026-08-09 $0.4220 $0.8537 $1.56 $2.75 $4.61 $7.33 $11.46
2026-08-16 $0.2194 $0.5821 $1.30 $2.71 $5.19 $9.18 $15.80
2026-08-23 $0.1038 $0.3696 $1.01 $2.45 $5.31 $10.32 $19.24
2026-08-30 $0.0426 $0.2148 $0.7309 $2.08 $5.05 $10.73 $21.52
2026-09-06 $0.0237 $0.1615 $0.6532 $2.09 $5.53 $12.50 $26.37
2026-09-13 $0.0182 $0.1543 $0.7013 $2.42 $6.77 $15.89 $34.56
2026-09-20 $0.0099 $0.1164 $0.6243 $2.40 $7.19 $17.73 $40.12
2026-09-27 $0.0050 $0.0860 $0.5481 $2.34 $7.51 $19.40 $45.55
2026-10-04 $0.0022 $0.0605 $0.4658 $2.22 $7.63 $20.69 $50.35
2026-10-11 $0.0007 $0.0363 $0.3572 $1.94 $7.27 $20.81 $52.76
2026-10-18 $0.0002 $0.0209 $0.2700 $1.69 $6.87 $20.76 $54.81
2026-10-25 $0.0000 $0.0118 $0.2070 $1.50 $6.62 $21.08 $57.84
2026-11-01 $0.0000 $0.0071 $0.1676 $1.39 $6.59 $21.94 $62.20
2026-11-08 $0.0000 $0.0048 $0.1471 $1.36 $6.84 $23.59 $68.58
2026-11-15 $0.0000 $0.0025 $0.1133 $1.21 $6.62 $23.93 $71.89
2026-11-22 N/A $0.0010 $0.0771 $1.01 $6.05 $23.14 $72.34
2026-11-29 N/A $0.0006 $0.0704 $1.01 $6.38 $25.09 $79.89
2026-12-06 N/A $0.0007 $0.0828 $1.20 $7.56 $29.76 $94.84
2026-12-13 N/A $0.0005 $0.0738 $1.18 $7.83 $31.67 $102.78
2026-12-20 N/A $0.0003 $0.0641 $1.15 $8.01 $33.31 $110.19
2026-12-27 N/A $0.0001 $0.0528 $1.08 $8.00 $34.36 $116.14
2027-01-03 N/A $0.0000 $0.0374 $0.9341 $7.50 $33.70 $117.40
2027-01-10 N/A $0.0000 $0.0257 $0.7976 $6.99 $32.91 $118.16
2027-01-17 N/A $0.0000 $0.0179 $0.6959 $6.64 $32.67 $120.71
2027-01-24 N/A $0.0000 $0.0135 $0.6366 $6.52 $33.26 $125.72

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.