AMZN SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$250.06

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$268.23

Bear 68%

$221.70

Bull 68%

$319.19

68% Range Width

36.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $228.28 $236.12 $243.75 $251.74 $259.85 $267.85 $276.33
2026-10-04 $218.65 $230.41 $241.96 $254.15 $266.65 $279.06 $292.32
2026-10-11 $213.75 $228.13 $242.34 $257.42 $272.97 $288.49 $305.15
2026-10-18 $206.58 $223.07 $239.46 $256.95 $275.06 $293.23 $312.81
2026-10-25 $200.15 $218.40 $236.64 $256.19 $276.51 $296.98 $319.12
2026-11-01 $197.11 $217.05 $237.06 $258.58 $281.04 $303.74 $328.37
2026-11-08 $192.35 $213.71 $235.24 $258.48 $282.82 $307.49 $334.34
2026-11-15 $187.35 $209.97 $232.85 $257.65 $283.70 $310.19 $339.09
2026-11-22 $181.47 $205.16 $229.22 $255.39 $282.97 $311.09 $341.87
2026-11-29 $176.73 $201.45 $226.65 $254.14 $283.21 $312.93 $345.54
2026-12-06 $174.33 $200.14 $226.53 $255.43 $286.05 $317.43 $351.93
2026-12-13 $171.96 $198.80 $226.33 $256.55 $288.66 $321.64 $357.96
2026-12-20 $170.40 $198.39 $227.19 $258.89 $292.65 $327.41 $365.76
2026-12-27 $168.85 $197.94 $227.97 $261.12 $296.51 $333.01 $373.37
2027-01-03 $168.37 $198.60 $229.89 $264.51 $301.55 $339.83 $382.21
2027-01-10 $164.90 $195.96 $228.22 $264.01 $302.40 $342.16 $386.27
2027-01-17 $161.36 $193.18 $226.34 $263.24 $302.91 $344.09 $389.86
2027-01-24 $160.43 $193.21 $227.47 $265.66 $306.82 $349.60 $397.22
2027-01-31 $157.63 $191.15 $226.28 $265.56 $307.97 $352.14 $401.40
2027-02-07 $154.36 $188.52 $224.45 $264.72 $308.29 $353.77 $404.57
2027-02-14 $150.10 $184.75 $221.32 $262.42 $307.02 $353.65 $405.83
2027-02-21 $146.72 $181.92 $219.17 $261.16 $306.82 $354.66 $408.28
2027-02-28 $145.35 $181.27 $219.40 $262.46 $309.37 $358.60 $413.84
2027-03-07 $143.91 $180.53 $219.50 $263.60 $311.73 $362.30 $419.13
2027-03-14 $143.21 $180.68 $220.65 $265.97 $315.52 $367.66 $426.32
2027-03-21 $142.45 $180.75 $221.70 $268.23 $319.19 $372.88 $433.37

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.