AMZN SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$248.77

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$261.73

Bear 68%

$217.48

Bull 68%

$309.63

68% Range Width

35.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $226.71 $234.14 $241.36 $248.90 $256.54 $264.06 $272.01
2026-08-09 $215.14 $226.37 $237.36 $248.93 $260.74 $272.45 $284.92
2026-08-16 $207.56 $221.34 $234.92 $249.28 $264.03 $278.71 $294.41
2026-08-23 $200.45 $216.30 $232.00 $248.67 $265.87 $283.06 $301.52
2026-08-30 $193.05 $210.61 $228.07 $246.71 $266.00 $285.36 $306.21
2026-09-06 $187.08 $206.15 $225.20 $245.61 $266.82 $288.15 $311.21
2026-09-13 $183.64 $204.16 $224.73 $246.85 $269.89 $293.14 $318.33
2026-09-20 $180.85 $202.71 $224.71 $248.43 $273.20 $298.27 $325.48
2026-09-27 $179.04 $202.20 $225.57 $250.84 $277.30 $304.13 $333.32
2026-10-04 $176.62 $200.96 $225.58 $252.28 $280.31 $308.79 $339.83
2026-10-11 $175.57 $201.09 $226.98 $255.11 $284.72 $314.85 $347.74
2026-10-18 $172.18 $198.66 $225.61 $254.98 $285.95 $317.53 $352.08
2026-10-25 $169.13 $196.60 $224.65 $255.29 $287.68 $320.77 $357.04
2026-11-01 $165.95 $194.35 $223.44 $255.29 $289.04 $323.59 $361.52
2026-11-08 $163.22 $192.52 $222.62 $255.65 $290.73 $326.71 $366.27
2026-11-15 $159.82 $189.92 $220.92 $255.04 $291.34 $328.65 $369.74
2026-11-22 $155.44 $186.20 $217.98 $253.05 $290.45 $328.97 $371.46
2026-11-29 $151.90 $183.33 $215.90 $251.94 $290.46 $330.20 $374.10
2026-12-06 $150.33 $182.56 $216.06 $253.19 $292.95 $334.02 $379.45
2026-12-13 $149.12 $182.16 $216.57 $254.79 $295.77 $338.18 $385.14
2026-12-20 $148.63 $182.51 $217.88 $257.23 $299.48 $343.25 $391.78
2026-12-27 $147.42 $182.06 $218.30 $258.68 $302.12 $347.17 $397.18
2027-01-03 $147.36 $182.85 $220.04 $261.55 $306.26 $352.67 $404.23
2027-01-10 $145.04 $181.12 $219.02 $261.41 $307.15 $354.69 $407.58
2027-01-17 $142.99 $179.71 $218.39 $261.73 $308.56 $357.32 $411.62
2027-01-24 $140.75 $178.07 $217.48 $261.73 $309.63 $359.57 $415.25

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.