ALAB SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$273.18

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$349.38

Bear 68%

$107.97

Bull 68%

$1,613.87

68% Range Width

431.0%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $201.31 $224.88 $250.63 $280.92 $315.71 $354.53 $401.32
2026-10-04 $177.36 $210.79 $250.13 $300.21 $362.79 $439.06 $540.10
2026-10-11 $151.05 $189.35 $237.46 $303.16 $391.85 $509.31 $679.92
2026-10-18 $122.30 $160.40 $211.00 $284.48 $390.78 $542.73 $783.48
2026-10-25 $104.71 $143.38 $197.55 $281.11 $410.68 $611.00 $958.94
2026-11-01 $91.74 $130.78 $188.32 $282.38 $438.56 $699.84 $1,199.20
2026-11-08 $83.37 $123.63 $186.01 $294.11 $486.68 $836.82 $1,579.32
2026-11-15 $73.67 $113.01 $176.66 $292.81 $513.24 $946.02 $1,959.35
2026-11-22 $63.15 $99.58 $160.66 $277.06 $510.17 $999.46 $2,251.46
2026-11-29 $57.19 $92.90 $155.13 $279.46 $543.87 $1,142.79 $2,843.91
2026-12-06 $51.91 $86.65 $149.40 $280.47 $575.70 $1,296.19 $3,570.54
2026-12-13 $47.07 $80.53 $142.99 $278.92 $602.12 $1,449.53 $4,420.63
2026-12-20 $44.04 $77.58 $142.60 $291.25 $668.77 $1,751.18 $6,098.77
2026-12-27 $42.35 $76.93 $146.81 $315.36 $776.01 $2,239.52 $9,160.93
2027-01-03 $39.23 $73.04 $143.69 $321.81 $839.59 $2,637.27 $12,497.81
2027-01-10 $34.70 $65.71 $132.00 $304.31 $827.35 $2,762.90 $14,624.68
2027-01-17 $31.88 $61.57 $126.81 $302.73 $865.74 $3,121.67 $19,085.05
2027-01-24 $29.68 $58.50 $123.57 $305.84 $922.33 $3,612.54 $25,987.27
2027-01-31 $28.35 $57.14 $124.20 $320.24 $1,027.06 $4,440.02 $39,200.20
2027-02-07 $26.38 $54.08 $120.19 $320.02 $1,078.03 $5,053.87 $53,303.35
2027-02-14 $23.85 $49.45 $111.53 $303.46 $1,056.99 $5,242.73 $62,925.26
2027-02-21 $22.49 $47.41 $109.26 $306.91 $1,123.95 $6,078.13 $89,788.11
2027-02-28 $21.18 $45.35 $106.64 $308.68 $1,185.84 $6,980.13 $127,964.31
2027-03-07 $19.89 $43.17 $103.36 $307.47 $1,234.51 $7,873.41 $179,268.49
2027-03-14 $19.18 $42.41 $104.11 $321.78 $1,375.99 $9,873.67 $316,844.04
2027-03-21 $18.88 $42.70 $107.97 $349.38 $1,613.87 $13,459.92 $703,423.02

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.