ALAB SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$314.44

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$365.99

Bear 68%

$116.34

Bull 68%

$1,883.12

68% Range Width

482.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $209.45 $237.30 $268.49 $306.21 $350.86 $402.34 $466.66
2026-08-09 $168.64 $202.42 $243.18 $296.58 $365.63 $453.20 $574.76
2026-08-16 $149.28 $188.51 $239.08 $310.41 $410.73 $550.48 $766.80
2026-08-23 $128.98 $169.93 $225.77 $309.77 $437.22 $631.01 $964.48
2026-08-30 $107.56 $146.59 $202.24 $290.52 $433.31 $667.68 $1,111.67
2026-09-06 $96.00 $135.41 $194.28 $293.02 $464.17 $770.02 $1,417.78
2026-09-13 $85.86 $124.87 $185.64 $292.94 $491.47 $876.92 $1,791.43
2026-09-20 $76.92 $114.96 $176.50 $290.37 $514.36 $985.56 $2,239.51
2026-09-27 $72.46 $111.59 $177.57 $306.32 $578.20 $1,207.76 $3,143.64
2026-10-04 $70.17 $111.47 $184.23 $334.57 $677.92 $1,565.65 $4,822.42
2026-10-11 $64.79 $105.33 $179.15 $338.45 $725.33 $1,819.59 $6,498.37
2026-10-18 $57.44 $94.79 $164.29 $318.71 $709.75 $1,887.54 $7,524.55
2026-10-25 $52.55 $88.64 $157.92 $318.62 $751.95 $2,190.57 $10,473.27
2026-11-01 $47.96 $82.49 $150.67 $315.15 $785.63 $2,502.34 $14,485.54
2026-11-08 $45.97 $81.09 $153.05 $335.97 $903.03 $3,270.64 $25,605.41
2026-11-15 $42.85 $77.04 $149.16 $340.14 $971.92 $3,927.71 $40,951.80
2026-11-22 $38.56 $70.16 $137.98 $322.21 $957.23 $4,158.52 $53,303.34
2026-11-29 $36.33 $67.27 $135.47 $328.14 $1,036.46 $5,067.57 $94,292.01
2026-12-06 $34.11 $64.17 $132.00 $330.59 $1,105.69 $6,068.24 $171,161.72
2026-12-13 $31.94 $60.92 $127.72 $329.65 $1,162.29 $7,129.79 $319,323.59
2026-12-20 $31.02 $60.34 $129.94 $350.20 $1,334.69 $9,736.64 $1,060,558.86
2026-12-27 $30.73 $61.13 $135.83 $385.37 $1,616.50 $14,841.07 $9,167,199.43
2027-01-03 $29.23 $58.95 $133.54 $391.37 $1,747.32 $18,836.86 $93,530,133.15
2027-01-10 $26.83 $54.40 $124.19 $368.74 $1,688.78 $19,494.84 $415,293,881.35
2027-01-17 $25.29 $51.92 $120.69 $369.48 $1,798.60 $24,629.10 N/A
2027-01-24 $23.73 $49.26 $116.34 $365.99 $1,883.12 $30,395.95 N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.