68% Bear Case

$0.22

23-Week Base Target

$0.66

68% Bull Case

$1.86

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of AKT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.66 0.76 0.87 1.00
2026-06-21 0.33 0.42 0.52 0.66 0.84 1.05 1.32
2026-06-28 0.25 0.35 0.48 0.66 0.90 1.21 1.65
2026-07-05 0.20 0.30 0.44 0.65 0.95 1.36 1.97
2026-07-12 0.16 0.26 0.41 0.64 1.00 1.51 2.31
2026-07-19 0.13 0.23 0.37 0.62 1.01 1.61 2.59
2026-07-26 0.11 0.21 0.36 0.63 1.07 1.78 2.99
2026-08-02 0.10 0.19 0.35 0.63 1.13 1.95 3.40
2026-08-09 0.09 0.18 0.34 0.65 1.21 2.16 3.91
2026-08-16 0.08 0.17 0.34 0.66 1.28 2.38 4.44
2026-08-23 0.07 0.15 0.31 0.64 1.29 2.47 4.77
2026-08-30 0.06 0.14 0.31 0.66 1.37 2.70 5.36
2026-09-06 0.06 0.14 0.30 0.67 1.43 2.92 5.96
2026-09-13 0.05 0.13 0.29 0.68 1.49 3.13 6.57
2026-09-20 0.04 0.12 0.28 0.67 1.53 3.30 7.12
2026-09-27 0.04 0.11 0.27 0.66 1.55 3.44 7.62
2026-10-04 0.04 0.10 0.26 0.65 1.59 3.61 8.21
2026-10-11 0.03 0.09 0.24 0.63 1.58 3.69 8.60
2026-10-18 0.03 0.09 0.24 0.64 1.64 3.92 9.35
2026-10-25 0.03 0.08 0.23 0.64 1.69 4.14 10.10
2026-11-01 0.02 0.08 0.23 0.66 1.78 4.46 11.10
2026-11-08 0.02 0.08 0.23 0.68 1.87 4.78 12.13
2026-11-15 0.02 0.07 0.22 0.66 1.86 4.87 12.63